Forecasting staffing needs. Methods for forecasting staffing needs Forecasting staffing needs

Let's take a closer look at personnel requirements planning.

An organization's personnel policy is an integral part of the enterprise's management and production system. It focuses on the outcome of established objectives and end goals. Within its framework, the main foundations, methods, forms and means of influencing the interests, actions and performance of employees are formed for greater use of their intelligence, creative and physical capabilities at any individual enterprise.

Personnel planning at an enterprise plays an important role. Determining staffing needs is a top priority. Planning is a whole system of important procedures carried out for a specific purpose - to have workers with the necessary qualifications to perform a specific job at a designated place and at a certain time.

Planning tasks

Main planning tasks:

• providing the organization with personnel on time with minimal costs;
• creating productive work on recruiting and training personnel;
• increase productivity and quality of work.

Personnel recruitment planning must be carried out at every stage of the company's planning.

First, the need for personnel is determined by the long-term plans of the enterprise, and only then the situation with personnel affects the development of the organization's plans.

Types and factors of personnel planning

What types of personnel planning exist?

1. Strategic. This is long term planning. It is designed for a long time (from 3 to 10 years). Strategic personnel planning is based on the company's long-term strategy, taking into account the impact of external and internal factors.
2. Tactical. Designed for a shorter period (1-3 years). It is planned to identify problems that hinder the implementation of the employee management strategy and organize measures to solve this problem. Such planning sets precise goals and involves certain activities with which the goal can be achieved.
3. Operational. Planning for a month, quarter (up to a year). Aimed at the implementation of some operational goals (recruit employees, train, help adapt and certify).

Planning and forecasting staffing needs also takes into account factors such as:

1. Statement sheet.
2. Personnel policy.
3. The company's HR strategy.
4. Staff turnover.
5. Salary amount.

Planning principles

The principles of personnel planning are what personnel planning is based on.

Let's consider a number of principles:

• involvement of enterprise employees;
• continuity, because planning is a continuous process with repeating cycles;
• flexibility (maneuverability), i.e. making adjustments due to changing circumstances;
• coordination of plans for the interconnection and unity of the organization as a whole;
• profitability - minimum costs with maximum effect;
• creating comfortable conditions for the execution of the plan.

All these principles are universal and suitable for different levels of management.

Analysis of personnel needs

An analysis of the enterprise's personnel supply is carried out in each company. The actual number of employees of a certain category and profession is compared with the planned one. It is important to analyze the qualitative composition of employees by their skill levels.

The volume of its production, as well as the deadline for completing the work, depend on how well the enterprise is provided with personnel.

Additional staffing needs arise in almost every organization. Assessment of personnel needs is qualitative and quantitative in nature and is therefore divided into 2 types. Let's look at them in more detail:

1. Quality staffing needs. This is a need that takes into account the category, profession, specialty and level of requirements for employees.
2. Quantitative staffing requirements. This is a need for a certain number of employees for the company and its divisions.

Determination of the quantitative need for personnel is carried out by comparing the estimated number of employees and the actual supply in the current period.

What methods of personnel planning exist?

When determining the staffing of an organization, various methods should be used. There are a great variety of them: both simple and very complex. When choosing personnel planning methods, you should rely on the amount of necessary financial, information and other resources, the specifics of the enterprise’s activities, as well as the skill level of the employees who carry out the planning.

Forecasting methods:

1. Labor intensity method. A list of actions and tasks for employees is compiled and the completion time is recorded and then averaged. It is believed that this analysis helps to obtain labor cost standards and calculate the number of employees needed to complete certain tasks. The result of this method is the usefulness and significance of the operations performed.
2. Calculation method based on service standards. Similar to the previous method. It makes it easy to identify staffing needs. It is necessary to take into account the production rate and the volume of planned production. For example, in a confectionery shop where cakes are produced, confectioners work. It is necessary to calculate the required average number of employees. Taking into account the volume of production (3000 cakes per month, cooking time for 1 piece is 3 hours) and an 8-hour working day with a 5-day working week, we can calculate the number of confectioners needed in a confectionery shop: (3 hours * 3000 cakes)/( 8 hours * 22 days) = 51 pastry chef. The first 2 methods are useful for calculations in the production and service industries.
3. Method of expert assessments. This method relies on the opinion of experts (usually organizational leaders), their intuition and experience.
4. Extrapolation method. It consists of shifting the current situation of the company to the planned period, taking into account market specifics and changes in the financial situation. Suitable for a short period of time and in financially stable companies. For example, an organization that sells food products has 6 commercial agents, the sales volume is $6,000. For next year, the organization plans a volume of $8,000. It follows from this that the organization will need 8 agents, because 1 agent accounts for a sales volume of $1,000.
5. Delphi method. Personnel workers and experts exchange opinions in writing. Next, a survey is created for a large number of independent experts, and then its results are analyzed by human resources staff, who make the final decision.
6. Group assessment. The technique of using this method is to gather groups in which problems and tasks are identified, and methods of solution are jointly selected.
7. Computer planning model. The use of such a model makes it possible to combine different forecasting methods, which increases their accuracy.

It is necessary to take into account staff turnover when planning staffing requirements. To find out the turnover rate, it is necessary to take into account all the characteristic features of the enterprise, the number of people who have not passed certification, have also retired or are on maternity leave, and seasonality. Statistics show that the overall turnover rate in the manufacturing sector is on average 10%, and in the hotel sector this figure can be about 80%, which is the norm for this business.

Companies are looking for sources and ways to cover staffing needs based on planned needs. Very often organizations take a proactive approach.

So, what are the passive and active ways to cover staffing needs?

Active:

• recruitment of workers in universities, technical schools, etc.;
• submitting applications for vacancies to the labor exchange;
• the use of the services of consultants who professionally recruit employees and special intermediary recruitment firms;
• recruiting new employees.

Passive:

• message about a job vacancy in the media;
• placement of local advertisements.

Planning for personnel requirements is one of the most important areas of personnel planning, which allows you to establish the qualitative and quantitative composition of personnel for a given period of time.

As can be seen from the definition, it is necessary to distinguish between qualitative and quantitative personnel needs. These types of needs in population planning practice are calculated in unity and interconnection.

Personnel requirement planning includes the following steps:

A generalized analysis of various types of organizational plans that have an impact on staffing (for example, production and sales plans, investment plans, etc.);

Analysis of personnel statistics, including information on their business evaluation and promotion;

Determination of the actual state in terms of quantity and quality of personnel for the planned period;

Calculation of qualitative and quantitative personnel requirements for the same planned period;

Comparison of data obtained at the two previous planning stages;

Planning measures to cover staffing needs.

Qualitative need, i.e. the need for categories, professions, specialties, level of qualification requirements for personnel, is calculated based on the general organizational structure, as well as the organizational structures of departments; professional and qualification division of work recorded in production and technological documentation into the work process; requirements for positions and jobs specified in job descriptions or job descriptions; the staffing table of the organization and its divisions, where the composition of positions is recorded; documentation regulating various organizational and managerial processes, highlighting the requirements for the professional and qualification composition of performers.

Calculation of quality needs by profession, specialty, etc. accompanied by a simultaneous calculation of the number of personnel for each criterion of quality need. The total need for personnel is found by summing the quantitative needs according to individual qualitative criteria.

The quantitative need for personnel is planned by determining its estimated number and comparing it with the actual supply for a certain planning period. There are several main methods for calculating quantitative personnel requirements.

A method based on the use of data on the time of the labor process. Process time data makes it possible to calculate the number of production personnel, which directly depends on the labor intensity of the product. For calculations, you should use the following typical dependence:

where n is the number of product items in the production program; Ni is the number of products of the i-th item; Ti is the execution time of the process (part of the process) for the manufacture of the product of the i-th item; Kv - the coefficient of fulfillment of time standards (in foreign literature - the level of productivity, the level of time use) is calculated as follows:

The number of jobs can be determined differentiated by professional types of work, by the qualification complexity of the work, with the appropriate allocation of initial data on the time of production of the product. An example of calculating the number of production personnel using the method under consideration is shown in table. 5.7.

The useful time fund of one employee (Tpol) and the coefficient for converting attendance to payroll are determined from the balance of working time of one employee.

The balance sheet structure is shown in table. 5.8.

As a variation of the method under consideration, an approach can be presented for determining the number of management personnel using the Rosencrantz formula, which in general has the following form:

(5.2)

Calculation of the number of personnel based on data on the labor intensity of the work process

where H is the number of management personnel of a certain profession, specialty, department, etc.; n is the number of functions that determine the workload of this category of specialists; mi is the average number of certain actions (settlements, order processing, negotiations, etc.) within the i-th function for a specified period of time (for example,

Table 5.8. Structure of the working time balance of one employee

in a year); ti is the time required to complete unit t within the i-th function; T - working time of a specialist in accordance with the employment contract for the corresponding period of time accepted in the calculations; Knrv - coefficient of necessary time distribution; Kfrv - coefficient of actual time distribution; tp - time for various functions that cannot be taken into account in preliminary (planned) calculations.

The required time allocation coefficient (Knrv) is calculated as follows:

Knrv = Kdr * Ko * Kp, (5.3)

where Kdr is a coefficient that takes into account the costs of additional functions not taken into account in advance in the time required for a certain process (?m t); as a rule, is within 1.2 The coefficient of actual time distribution (Kfrv) is determined by the ratio of the total working time of any department to the time calculated as

It should be noted that in general, the Rosen Kranz formula serves to check the compliance of the actual number (for example, of a unit) with the required one, which is specified by the load of this unit.

To use the Rosencrantz formula in planning calculations, it should be given the following form:

(5.4)

since the values ​​of tp and Kfrp in this case are unknown.

An example of calculating the number of management personnel using the Rosenkrantz formula is given below based on the initial data indicated in table. 5.9.

The total time for performing management functions is determined as

(500 1) + (3000 0,5) + (300 3) = 2900

Required time allocation factor:

Knrv = 1.3 1.12 1.1 = 1.6

Actual time distribution ratio:

The calculation of the required number of units is carried out using the Rosencrantz formula as follows:

As indicated in the source data (Table 5.9), the actual number of units is 30 people. Thus, the calculation of the required number showed some surplus (? 1 person) of the actual number of employees.

Calculation method based on service standards. This method is used if the number of personnel depends on the number of units, devices and other objects being serviced.

The number of workers or employees according to service standards is calculated using the following formula:

In turn, service standards are determined by the formula

(5.6)

where n is the number of types of work to maintain the facility; tеdi is the time required to complete a unit of volume of the i-th type of work; npi - number of volume units of the i-th type of work; Tpol - the employee’s useful time per day (shift); Td - the time required for the employee to perform additional functions not included in ted.

Calculation of the number of personnel using service standards is carried out according to the initial data indicated in table. 5.10.

Table 5.10. Initial data for calculating the number of personnel for servicing a complex of units

The first step is to determine the standard of service:

Hence the number of personnel:

Calculation method based on jobs and headcount standards.

This method should be considered as a special case of using the service standards method, since both the required number of workers according to the number of jobs and the number standards are established based on service standards.

The number of employees by workplace is determined by the formula

Number standards are determined as follows:

(5.8)

The coefficient used in calculations for all methods of determining headcount is the conversion factor from attendance to payroll numbers, which makes it possible to take into account the likely absence of personnel from the workplace during a planned period of time due to illness; regular or additional leave; study leave; other valid reasons.

The specified conversion factor can be determined based on the balance of working time of one employee for the planned calendar period of time through the ratio of the total number of calendar working days to the number of actual working days.

Some statistical methods can also be used to calculate the number of employees. They are conventionally divided into two main groups: stochastic methods; methods of expert assessments.

Stochastic calculation methods are based on the analysis of the relationship between personnel requirements and other variables

quantities (for example, production volume). In this case, data for the previous period is taken into account and it is assumed that the need in the future will develop according to a similar dependence. As a rule, for calculations, factors are used that do not require complex mathematical operations, but give quite acceptable results.

The most frequently used stochastic methods are: calculation of numerical characteristics; regression analysis; correlation analysis.

The calculation of numerical characteristics is used, as a rule, in the case when the need for personnel is largely related to some factor and this relationship is quite stable. For example, when calculating the number of repair personnel, the following data is used: production volumes for the past year; labor intensity of repairs during this period. On their basis, an indicator of the labor intensity of repairs per unit of output is calculated, on the basis of which the volume of repair work for the planning period is determined. The further calculation procedure is carried out according to the scheme of the method based on data on the time of the work process.

Regression analysis involves establishing a linear relationship between the number of personnel and the factors influencing it.

The general formula is as follows:

Tp = a + b * x, (5.9)

where Tr is the labor intensity of the work; a is a constant value; b - regression coefficient; x - influencing factor.

It should be noted that the mathematical apparatus of regression analysis is discussed in detail in educational and scientific literature on statistics, therefore it is not presented in this textbook.

Correlation analysis establishes the close relationship between several parameters. This may be a dependence that determines the degree of influence of any parameter (for example, production volume or services) directly on the number of personnel. Otherwise, it may be a dependence that determines the close relationship of one or more parameters with other parameters, the significant influence of which on the number of personnel has been established.

The closeness of the relationship between the parameters is expressed by the correlation coefficient. The higher the correlation coefficient, the stronger the relationship. To calculate the correlation coefficient, the following relationship is used:

(5.10)

where mj, рj are the values ​​of the parameters (between which the closeness of connection is established) along the i-th dimension; msr, psr - arithmetic average values ​​of the corresponding parameters; n is the number of measurements of parameters m and p (for example, the number of calendar periods of time during which the parameter values ​​are taken into account).

The mathematical apparatus of correlation analysis (as well as regression analysis) has been worked out in detail in educational and scientific literature on statistics.

The application of expert assessment methods is carried out using the experience of specialists and managers. These methods are divided into simple and extended assessment, including both single and multiple expert assessments.

In a simple assessment, the need for personnel is assessed by the head of the relevant service. The method does not require any significant costs, but its disadvantage is that this assessment is quite subjective. Extended expert assessment is carried out by a group of competent workers (experts).

The above methods allow us to determine the total personnel requirement. However, a more important quantity for personnel planning is the actual need for personnel. The calculation of actual needs takes into account the need to cover planned or unscheduled departures of personnel, as well as their planned intake. The return of employees after training, military service, long leave, etc. should be considered as a planned intake.

Planned personnel departures include reductions in personnel due to the reorganization of production or services, reorganization of the organizational structure; sending employees for training, internship, etc.; conscription into the army; retirement.

In these cases, the departure of personnel can be predicted with varying accuracy and measures can be taken in advance to hire or reassign workers.

A major difficulty for planning is the departure of personnel for unplanned reasons. These include voluntary dismissal; dismissal at the initiative of the administration; long-term illness of an employee; additional holidays; unscheduled conscription into the army; unplanned retirement, etc.

In these cases, personnel retirement planning can be carried out on the basis of statistical data on employees released for the specified reasons over the past 3-5 years.

Forecasting the need for personnel is based on the analysis of forecasts of supply and demand to determine the future shortage or excess of human resources. The main task of forecasting is to establish the influence of market development trends on changes in personnel needs. Solving this problem allows the organization to make and implement decisions in advance that are designed for the future (for example, on the selection or training of personnel focused on changing the organization’s products or services).

In forecasting theory, various methods have been developed that can also be applied to forecasting personnel requirements. These methods include: constructing a forecast tree of the organization’s development goals, the level of objectives of which involves solving personnel problems; extrapolation, which consists in establishing stable dependencies (proportions) between various parameters that affect the need for personnel, and transferring these dependencies to a future period; expert assessments; factor analysis using elements of correlation and regression analysis.

Forecasting the need for personnel should be carried out in close contact with the services that directly address issues of forecasting the development of the organization. Such services include departments of planning, marketing, development of management systems, etc.

When determining personnel requirements in each specific case, it is advisable to involve the heads of the relevant departments.

The main task of planning to attract personnel is to satisfy the future need for employees through internal and external sources.

Planning for employee release is essential in the workforce planning process. It allows us to avoid the transfer of qualified personnel to the external labor market and the creation of social difficulties for them.

This area of ​​activity has received virtually no development in domestic organizations until recently. Due to the importance of such an event as leaving an organization, the main task of the personnel service when working with resigning employees is to mitigate the transition to a different production, social, and personal situation as much as possible.

Planning for the use of personnel is carried out through the development of a plan for filling regular positions. Along with taking into account qualification characteristics, when determining a place of work, it is necessary to take into account the mental and physical stress on a person and the capabilities of the applicant in this area. Personnel training planning covers activities for intra-organizational, extra-organizational training and self-training, allowing the use of employees’ own production resources without searching for new highly qualified personnel on the external labor market. Such planning creates conditions for employee mobility and motivation.

Business career planning practices should include balancing employees' personal career expectations with the opportunities available within the organization. The modern level of personnel management requires career planning for each managerial employee.

Personnel costs are the basis for developing the organization's production and social indicators. When planning personnel costs, you should keep in mind the following cost items:

• basic and additional wages; social insurance contributions;
• expenses for business trips and official travel;
• expenses for training, retraining and advanced training of personnel;
• expenses associated with additional payments for public catering, housing and cultural services, healthcare and recreation, provision of child care facilities, and the purchase of special clothing.

In addition, expenses should be planned for labor protection and the environment, for creating more favorable working conditions and a healthy psychological climate in the team.

Formation of labor resources in accordance with the personnel policy of the organization is a complex and multi-stage function of personnel management. It is carried out on a planned basis and includes an assessment of the institution’s personnel, identification of staffing needs in terms of quantitative and qualitative characteristics and the development of specific measures to create optimal staffing.

The analysis process identifies a shortage of personnel for vacant positions, the need to introduce additional positions, the feasibility of reshuffles and the identification of specializations of employees that the organization does not need.

The following factors are taken into account:

• goals and objectives of the organization, development strategy and directions of operation;
• the number of goods and services produced per unit of time; organization structure;
• the scale and possibilities of technologization of certain labor processes;
• individual performance indicators and possibilities for its stimulation;
• volume and structure of the organization's working time.

Human resource planning is an integral process,

associated with the study of the labor market, certification of workers and jobs, professional and social adaptation, improvement of methods of stimulating labor, advanced training, and the formation of corporate consciousness. At the same time, this is an independent area of ​​work that has its own goals, methods and forms of work.

When planning personnel requirements, specific parameters are identified and relevant documents are prepared.

The need to replace personnel by year is recorded, in connection with retirement and dismissal, the possibility of reducing the number of personnel due to rationalization, reduction in production volumes, financial restrictions, the need to expand personnel in connection with the expansion of production, diversification, development of commercial activities, etc. d.

To determine the quantitative composition of personnel, various methods are used - from a simple comparison method to more complex computer models.

Basic methods for forecasting personnel requirements:

1. Econometric method , by which personnel requirements are derived from expected levels of final demand for goods and services for a specified year in the future.

2. Extrapolation - the simplest method that is often used. Its essence lies in the transfer of past trends, changes in the size of the total labor force and its structure to the future.

For example, if last year the volume of product sales per employee was 10 thousand hryvnia, then to increase sales by 100 thousand hryvnia it is necessary to hire 10 more workers.

The positive side of this method is its accessibility. The negative side is the inability to take into account changes in the development of the enterprise and the external environment. Therefore, this method is suitable for short-term planning and for enterprises with a stable structure and a stable external environment.

The adjusted extrapolation method is more accurate. Along with transferring the proportions of the current situation, it also takes into account changes in other influencing factors (labor productivity, price changes, demand dynamics, state of labor force development, etc.).

3. Expert assessment method is a method based on the use of expert opinion to determine personnel needs. These specialists can be both senior employees of the organization’s structural divisions and independent experts. In practice, as a rule, the HR department organizes the work of the former. In this case, various methods can be used: group discussion, written report, surveys, questionnaires, etc. The survey is conducted by the personnel management department, guided by pre-developed questions and information provided for this. The assessment of the survey results is carried out directly by department employees or a group of experts.

4.Balance sheet method planning is to establish a dynamic balance between labor resources, on the one hand, and their distribution in accordance with the needs of the enterprise, on the other. If resources are insufficient compared to the needs of the enterprise, then additional sources are searched to cover the deficit. The necessary resources can be attracted from outside, or they can be found within the enterprise. The inability, for one reason or another, to solve the problem of personnel shortages leads to the need to take measures to reduce the need for personnel based on the rationalization of the personnel structure or on the basis of its reduction. If the enterprise has an excess of resources, then the opposite problem should be solved - to expand their use or get rid of the surplus. The latter may be advisable in certain cases, for example, if the company needs to reduce wage costs. When planning personnel, labor balances are mainly used, reflecting the movement of the workforce and the use of the calendar fund of working time.

5. Mathematical and economic methods , which consist in optimizing calculations based on various types of models, which include correlation ones, reflecting the relationship between two variables. For example, by determining the average staff turnover rate, you can calculate their number on a certain date.

6. Linear programming methods allow, by solving a system of equations and inequalities that connect a number of variable indicators, to determine their optimal values ​​in relationship. This helps, based on a given criterion, to select the optimal option for the development of a management facility, the direction of placement of workers, which will allow effectively servicing workplaces and doing this at minimal cost.

7. Computer models is a set of mathematical formulas that allow the simultaneous use of extrapolation methods, standards, expert assessments and information about changes in factors affecting the quantitative and qualitative composition of personnel. Models provide the opportunity to have the most accurate forecast of labor needs, but this is a rather expensive method that requires special knowledge and skills to use, so it is advisable to use it in large enterprises.

8. Normative method is a method of applying a system of standards that determine the number of employees in a functional context, the cost of producing a unit of output (working time, wage fund). This planning method is used both independently and as an auxiliary to the balance sheet method.

Labor standards include standards for production, time, service, and quantity. They are established for workers in accordance with the achieved level of development of equipment, technology, organization of production and labor. More accurate calculations of the number should be carried out separately for categories of personnel, based on labor intensity, i.e. norms of time spent, working time fund and level of fulfillment of norms. Using headcount standards, the number of workers required to service equipment, workplaces, and labor costs by profession, specialty, and group of work is determined.

1.4. Methods for forecasting personnel needs.

Forecasting an organization's personnel needs can be done using a number of methods (individually and in combination). It is clear that, regardless of the method used, forecasts represent certain approximations and should not be considered as an absolutely correct result, a kind of “ultimate truth”.

Methods for forecasting personnel requirements can be based either on expert judgment or on the use of mathematics. Judgments include managers' assessments and the Delphi technique.

1. When using the managerial estimation method, managers provide estimates of future staffing needs. These assessments can be made either by upper management and passed down, or by lower level managers and passed up for further change. Although the greatest success is possible with a combination of these two options.

2. With the Delphi technique, each expert makes an independent assessment of what the next request will be, guided by all the basic assumptions. Intermediaries present each expert's forecast and assumptions to the others, and allow the experts to revise their positions if necessary. This process continues until agreement is reached.

Mathematics-based methods include various statistical and modeling techniques. Statistical methods use historical data to project future states. One of them can be considered extrapolation - the simplest and most frequently used method, which consists of transferring today's situation (proportions) to the future. The attractiveness of this method lies in its accessibility. The limitation lies in the inability to take into account changes in the development of the organization and the external environment. Therefore, this method is suitable for short-term planning and for organizations with a stable structure operating in relatively stable external conditions.

Modeling techniques typically provide a simplified view of the staffing needs of an organization. As input data changes, staffing ramifications can be tested for different staffing demand scenarios.

Separately, there are methods for determining the required number of personnel of an enterprise. It is necessary to distinguish between:

The total personnel requirement, which represents the entire number of personnel that the enterprise needs to complete the planned amount of work (gross personnel requirement),

Additional demand, the number of workers that is needed in the planning period in addition to the existing number of the base year, determined by the current needs of the enterprise (net personnel requirement).

Gross demand can be determined using the organization’s staffing schedules, analysis of tasks and statistical methods using the following formula:

If we subtract the actual available personnel from the quantitative value of the gross value and take into account future changes in it (retirement, transfers, layoffs), we obtain the net personnel requirement. If this value is positive, then problems arise in hiring personnel; if it is negative, then problems arise in adapting them to needs.

1.5. Development of specific plans.

Once personnel requirements have been determined, action plans must be developed to achieve the desired results. If the firm's requirements indicate a need for additions, then plans must be formulated to recruit, select, orient, and train the specific numbers and types of personnel needed. If a reduction in workforce is necessary, plans must be made to accommodate the necessary adjustments. If time is not an issue, then natural wear and tear can be used to reduce labor costs. However, if the organization does not have the luxury of normal wear and tear, then the number can be reduced either by reducing the total number of employees or by making other adjustments that do not result in the resignation of employees.

There are four basic ways to reduce the total number of employees:

1. Production cuts;

2. Expiration, completion;

3. incentives for early retirement;

4. incentives to voluntarily leave the position.

Reduction in production, as opposed to expiration, implies that it is likely that employees will be recruited again in some numbers, but after a certain date. Most early retirement and resignation plans provide some financial incentive for these resignations.

Approaches that do not result in employee resignations include:

1. reclassification;

2. shipment;

3. distribution of work.

Reclassification involves either demotion of an employee, or reduction in job opportunities, or a combination of the two. Typically, reclassification is accompanied by a reduction in payment.

Reassignment involves moving an employee to another part of the organization.

Work distribution is an arrangement to limit production reduction and completion by proportionally reducing employees' hours of work.

Action plans should be developed gradually as workforce planning progresses. Individual managers determine the human resources needed to achieve specific goals. The workforce planning department summarizes this information and determines the overall personnel demand for the organization.

Similarly, the network of personnel requirements is based on information submitted for consideration by various departments of the organization in the light of available personnel and expected changes. If network demands are positive, the organizational tools are recruitment, selection, training, and development. If the demand is negative, appropriate adjustments must be made through production cuts, expiration, early retirement or voluntary resignation.

1.6. Stages of personnel process planning.

The workforce planning process consists of four basic planning steps:

1. Determining the impact of organizational goals on the organization's divisions;

2. Determination of future needs (necessary qualifications of future personnel and the total number of employees that are required for this organization to achieve its goals);

3. Determination of additional personnel requirements, taking into account the existing personnel of the organization;

4. Development of a specific action plan to eliminate personnel needs.

In the domestic literature I came across a second, slightly truncated interpretation of the stages of personnel planning:

1. Assessment of available personnel and their potential;

2. Assessment of future needs;

3. Development of a personnel development program.

Let’s take the first option as a basis and consider in more detail each of the stages of personnel planning.

1.7. Determining the influence of the organization’s strategic goals on its individual divisions.

As emphasized earlier, workforce planning should be based on the organization's strategic plans. In effect, this means that the goals of workforce planning should be derived from the goals of the organization. In other words, specific initial requirements in the form of a set of characteristics that employees must possess must be determined based on the goals of the organization as a whole.

A goal is a specific motive that is reflected in certain desired characteristics.

The goal setting process begins with the adoption of a global strategic objective, or mission, that defines the future of the organization. All other goals are formulated on its basis. It is used to set short-term (current) goals. Short-term goals generally have a timeline and can be expressed in quantitative terms. Divisional and departmental goals are derived from the short-term goals of the organization. This method is called the cascade approach to goal setting.

The waterfall approach is not a form of “top-down” planning, where goals are transferred “down” to lower levels of the organization. The idea is that all levels of management should be included in the planning process. This approach leads to upward and downward flows of information throughout the planning process. It also ensures that goals are communicated and coordinated across all levels of the organization.

The waterfall approach, when used correctly, includes both middle managers and HR in the overall planning process.

In the early stages, the HR department can influence goal setting in terms of providing information regarding available human resources. Below are some suggestions for integrating HR plans into an organization's strategic plans.

Some of the lessons learned in the area of ​​workforce planning:

1. Knowledge of business strategy. The top level of workforce planning must be intimately familiar with the company's strategic plan and must ensure that any assumptions made in developing workforce plans are consistent with the business strategy.

2. The business plan cycle and workforce planning must be integrated. Some firms find that this integration encourages existing administrators to think about personnel, when they are often only concerned with the business plan.

Workforce planning should be a common goal. The workforce planning system allowed top management to recognize that the company's continued growth was being driven by human resource deficiencies and that attention to the issue was needed at the top levels of the organization.

Personnel planning.

When considering the connections between the general goals of the company and the goals of personnel management, structural decisions related to determining the strategy of the company, its organizational structure, external and internal relations are fundamental in the field of personnel management.

It is at this stage that the company’s need for personnel is formed.

And before a company resorts to one or another method of providing itself with workers (decides what form of hiring to use, in what professions and in what quantity to train workers on its own), it must be able to influence the formation of the need for personnel through organizational measures that can be divided into internal and external.

Internal organizational activities that influence the formation of personnel requirements include:

Reorganization of company divisions;

Changing the functions of the unit;

Creation of teams with delegation of additional powers to them;

Determining the length of the working day or working week;

As a result of such measures, labor is enriched, the content of professions changes, and the professional and qualification composition of the required personnel changes.

External organizational events that influence the formation of personnel requirements include:

Cutting off ineffective activities;

Use of intermediary companies involved in personnel;

Expansion or reduction of contractual relations (outsourced orders);

Flexible forms of employment;

As a result of this kind of action, the company ceases to need entire groups of workers or relieves itself (in whole or in part) of the costs and responsibility for their use.

From the point of view of choosing strategic options for the functioning and development of a company, of undoubted interest is the rapid growth in today’s world of new forms of business organization, called the hollow or “shell company”.

In a shell company, many of the traditional functions (primarily production) are moved outside the internal organizational framework. In its pure form, it is a management company that hires the largest number of managers who coordinate the work of third-party contractors.

The theoretical explanation for the emergence of this kind of firms must be recognized as the work of Ronald Coase, who back in the 30s proposed a new theory called the “transaction theory of the firm.” The theory is based on the concept of “transaction,” which is understood as any transition from one technological stage of production of a final good to another. Transactions can be carried out in one of two organizational forms:

Market form (purchase and sale)

Bureaucratic form (under the roof of the company)

The choice of one form or another is determined by comparing the costs necessary to carry out each specific transaction in them.

According to the transaction theory of the firm, the analysis includes the costs of not only bureaucratic transactions that are understandable to everyone (bureaucratic expenses), but also market transactions (searching for a partner, the right product, identifying the quality of the product, concluding and defending a purchase and supply contract). The result of this approach was the understanding that the main purpose of a firm’s existence is not only production or maximization of transaction costs, but also:

Assessment of the available potential of labor resources;

Assessment of future needs;

Development of personnel development programs.

A specific determination of personnel requirements is a calculation of the required number of employees according to their number, qualifications, time, employment and placement in accordance with the current and future development objectives of the enterprise. The calculation is made on the basis of a comparison of the estimated labor demand and the actual state of supply on a certain date and represents the information basis for making management decisions in the field of attracting personnel, their training and retraining.

TABLE 1. Current relationships in planning personnel requirements.